The market was down sharply in the past week, buffeted first by disappointment over the Fed’s more hawkish-than-expected policy outlook. Then they were beaten down by fears President Donald Trump is starting a new front in the trade wars with China that is unlikely to end any time soon.
“The real issue as to why there’s going to be a correction in our view is there’s a massive, massive vacuum here,” said Julian Emanuel, head of equity and derivative strategy at BTIG. “In essence, it’s a month and a half of a vacuum, if you think about the direction of the rhetoric. … The issues are China, the issues are the Fed and the issues are Brexit. In the first tow, you’re almost not going to hear anything.”
Trump, in threatening new tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese goods on Thursday, said the tariffs would go into effect on Sept. 1 unless China acts, but no new talks are expected before September. Economists said if the tariffs are put in place, the risks of a U.S. recession rise, particularly if businesses step back from investment, and possibly even hiring. But that could also prompt the Fed to cut interest rates to rescue the economy when it meets in September.