Most economists are predicting that the economy will be weaker — or even in a recession — by the time voters go to the polls in 2020. For Trump and the GOP, the economy was probably a tail wind in these midterms, but it could turn into a substantial head wind by then.

Campaigning during a recession is tough, as George H.W. Bush learned in his failed 1992 reelection bid. The economy had fallen into a light downturn in late 1990 and early 1991, enough to give voters pause — especially suburban women, a group that Trump’s GOP struggled with in the midterms…

“Our forecast has [economic growth] stalling — that is, zero growth quarter on quarter — in the first half of 2020,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note to clients. “Gravity can’t be defied forever.”