From time to time I’ve been catching up with a Republican strategist who is trying to help the GOP keep control of the House in this November’s midterm elections. It’s been an up-and-down ride.
“I would put the odds of keeping the House at exactly 50-50,” he told me in January.
“I get how bad things seemingly are,” he said during a particularly tumultuous time in April. “But if the election were today, I’d bet my son’s college tuition we’d keep the House.”
He was even more confident by June. “We keep the House,” he told me. “I’d bet a lot of money on that.”
And now: “The last 30 days have been really bad. I really wouldn’t want to have the election today.”