American Research Group found Gov. John Kasich of Ohio trailing Trump in a two-way race, 42% to 48%, among likely Republican primary voters, with 9% undecided. Trump leads another possible rival, Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, 49% to 33%, with 18% undecided.
The results come ahead of Kasich’s third visit to the nation’s first primary state since ending his 2016 bid for president. He will speak Tuesday evening at New England College in Henniker. Flake, who is retiring from the Senate this year, made a trip to the state last month.
In 2016, polling analysts at FiveThirtyEight graded the New Hampshire–based ARG a C+, based on accuracy and methodology. But the firm correctly forecast Trump, Kasich, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz as the first-, second-, and third-place finishers in that year’s New Hampshire primary, respectively, missing Trump’s and Cruz’s vote shares by roughly 2 percentage points and Kasich’s by 1.