A month ago, the presidential race in Michigan was over: Hillary Clinton had an 11-point lead over Donald Trump, fueled by a 20-point margin among women, a 30-point lead in metro Detroit and history — no Republican has won the state since 1988 — on her side.
Only the election didn’t happen a month ago.
Heading into Tuesday’s balloting, Michiganders — and the nation — are facing a far more uncertain outcome than it appeared just four or five weeks ago. Trump, the Republican businessman, casino developer and reality TV star, has again proven his detractors wrong and coalesced many of his critics behind him. In battleground state after battleground state, including Michigan, he has cut into or surpassed Clinton’s once seemingly unbreakable lead.
In Michigan, that 11-point lead for the former first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state had collapsed to 4 percentage points in the latest Free Press poll. That’s at the edge of the poll’s margin of error, meaning that whatever lead she has, it’s not a sure one. Her lead among women is down to 11 points. That 30-point lead in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties? Cut in half.