As you can see, once Trump’s support shot up in August, he has stayed in the mid-20s for the past three months or so. Yes, for a very brief moment in late October, Ben Carson rose up and passed Trump in national polling. But, Carson’s fade of late looks real.
For all of the talk of Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, neither senator has yet consistently garnered even half the support Trump has been winning steadily since August. And, as for Jeb(!), well, his trend line since July is the opposite of Trump’s — down and then down some more.
And remember when you look at the chart above that the months that cover Trump’s rise and sustained front-running have not exactly been smooth sailing for him. They have been pockmarked, again and again, by Trump’s willingness to say and do incredibly controversial things. None of it has done him in — or even close. Given that, it’s hard to imagine Trump’s support all of a sudden disappearing based on something he says or does.