William Galston, Brookings Institution
I think it almost may be quite likely that there could be a serious military confrontation in East Asia. There are jurisdictional and boundary disputes in many places—what belongs to whom, what are national waters versus international waters, what is the relationship between de facto post-World War II status in which many of these disputed areas are still in, and a more final agreement that might finally be agreeable to all sides. A lot of this stuff has been out there for decades, but the rise of China has created a new situation where, somewhat defensively, other nations are asserting their own rights against a longstanding status quo. We have multiple guarantees to multiple parties in the area. These little confrontations about unoccupied islands can bubble up. China’s map about where their territorial waters extend are different than anyone else’s. The president said he wanted to “pivot to Asia” and he may be called upon to do that sooner than he expects…
Greg Anrig, the Century Foundation
The implementation of the Affordable Care Act. That is such a decentralized undertaking. It is largely in the hands of the states about how it plays out. It will be tough for the general public to have a sense of when comes in in full. Will it be a total success or a total fiasco? Because it is the central accomplishment he had during his first term it is essential that the implementation go well. There is a lot of scrambling going on behind the scenes right now and it remains to be seen how that goes.