Emanuel has told Chicago associates, a source tells me, who he believes will likely succeed him: Senior Obama adviser Valerie Jarrett.

Other internal names have risen and fallen: Peter Orszag was viewed, for an early moment, as a likely successor; Jim Messina is also a candidate, though bad midterms would do him damage as well; Tom Daschle has the requisite stature and connections on the Hill; John Podesta, who has said he doesn’t want the job, would represent a change of course.