Tehran says it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States eases military pressure and lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on September 22 that a proposal to end hostilities had also been conveyed to Washington through mediators. The offer deserves serious consideration: safer passage for ships and less fighting could save lives and ease pressure on the global economy. But a willingness to reduce the cost of confrontation does not, by itself, show that the government is ready to abandon policies that could produce new crises.
The Islamic Republic faces two dangers at once. Continued war drains the resources it needs to govern. Yet wartime conditions have made it easier for the state to define and contain domestic opposition as a national security threat. Tehran needs economic relief, but an agreement over the Strait of Hormuz will not resolve the crisis that already existed between the government and Iranian society.
The economic pressure is real. Reuters reported in early September that Iranian crude loadings had fallen to about 260,000 barrels a day from roughly 1.7 million a year earlier. Official annual average inflation was approaching 70 percent, and a monthly salary of about $125 covered less than a third of a household’s basic expenses. President Masoud Pezeshkian has said the country’s trade has fallen by 25 to 35 percent. War has compounded older problems involving water, electricity, inadequate investment and declining purchasing power.
There is no need, therefore, to dismiss Tehran’s proposal as a bluff. The government may genuinely want fewer attacks and an end to the blockade. The question is whether limiting the immediate damage of war also addresses the political causes of recurring crises. An agreement could make oil exports easier and shipping safer without changing the government’s relationship with its citizens.
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