Morocco’s Grey-Zone Strategy in Southern Spain

On July 30, the unprecedented crossing of over 75,000 undocumented migrants from Morocco into Ceuta, a tiny Spanish enclave on the North African coast, drew international attention. The sight of civilians streaming in uninhibited along the El Tarajal breakwater, by land or sea, and flooding into a city with slightly over 83,000 inhabitants blindsided Spanish authorities. While the large majority returned to Morocco within the next forty-eight hours, it is believed that around 10,000 migrants remain in Ceuta, though there is no official data. The episode triggered a multifaceted crisis and was made worse by a delayed, negligent government response, whose consequences Madrid is still grappling with. 

In the early hours of the crisis, the episode was largely framed as a predictable consequence of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s left-liberal approach to migration. At both the national and European levels, even across the Atlantic, the crisis prompted intense criticism of Sánchez’s migration policies, particularly pointing to a 2026 law aimed at regularizing half a million migrants, as well as a recent Spanish Supreme Court ruling preventing the immediate deportation of those arriving by sea, as pull factors that had incentivized people to flood into the city.

In reality, though, the issue is far more complex. The crossings have brought relations between Spain and Morocco back into the spotlight. Having travelled to Ceuta on July 31, Sánchez called the crossings “a violation and attack on Spain’s territorial integrity.” Yet, the prime minister notably refrained from identifying who had perpetrated such actions. Instead, he initially placed the blame on human trafficking networks and, when testifying before Congress a month into the massive arrivals, on disinformation campaigns allegedly disseminated by the international far-right, Russia and Israel. Both Moscow and Tel Aviv have denied such allegations. Sánchez and many of his ministers have praised Morocco for its “immediate, exemplary cooperation” in coordinating the migrants’ return, while denying any lack of trust in Rabat. At the same time, strikingly, Spain’s Defence Minister has abstained from mentioning Rabat altogether.