Russia Is Far from Defeated

The phrase “quantity has a quality of its own” is often attributed (possibly incorrectly) to Joseph Stalin, and captures a persistent feature of Russian and Soviet warfare. Mass comes first, and everything else follows.

Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine has pursued the same logic. Moscow has tried to overwhelm Ukraine with more soldiers, weapons and the advantages of a far larger population, economy and defense-industrial base. This imbalance has forced Kyiv to improvise and find ways to compensate.

It has partly done so through innovative forms of asymmetric warfare, and its expanding drone and long-range strike campaign has hit Russian refineries, fuel depots, ports, ships and logistics sites far behind the frontline every single day for weeks. These attacks have disrupted fuel supplies, forced Moscow to divert resources to air defense and demonstrated that Ukraine can impose serious costs.

There is clear pleasure among Ukraine’s supporters at seeing Russia struck with such frequency and to such effect.

But, there’s always a but. Kyiv’s Western allies shouldn’t get carried away. Ukraine’s successes coexist with a darker reflection where Russia continues to inflict grievous damage on its victim.

There are several aspects to this.