A new security environment in Central Europe is emerging, primarily driven by two Russian invasions of Ukraine: the first in 2014, which resulted in Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, and the second in 2022, which has triggered the most violent full-scale war in Europe since 1945.
This conflict has fundamentally altered Europe’s security landscape. With the second war in Ukraine entering its fifth year and no clear resolution in sight, the ripple effects of Putin’s decision to invade again—perhaps his biggest strategic mistake—are already being felt across the continent.
A key factor in this shift is the evolving German-Ukrainian partnership and the rapidly worsening Polish-Ukrainian relationship, which, until recently, was considered the main focus of Western efforts to support Ukraine. These two relationships—between Germany and Ukraine, and Poland and Ukraine—also indirectly influence German-Polish relations.
The Polish-Ukrainian Break
Poland, long recognized as a key logistical hub and a strong supporter of Western aid to Kyiv, is now embroiled in an increasingly bitter confrontation with Ukraine. This escalation was triggered by Kyiv’s decision to name one of its military units after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), a World War II military group responsible for the mass killing of Poles in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia, which resulted in about 100,000 Polish civilian deaths, including women and children.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member