The Work Crisis and the Work Still to Be Done

Jason Richwine recently noted an encouraging sign in the labor market: Among native-born men ages 25 to 54 without a college degree, the share outside the labor force — neither working nor looking for work — has fallen in recent months. As he explained, this may be consistent with the idea that tighter immigration enforcement is changing employer incentives and creating more opportunities for less-skilled American workers. But he also cautioned against claiming too much too quickly. Labor markets do not adjust overnight, and the economy is noisy enough that any short-term trend should be treated with some care.

That caveat is important, but so is the broader context. Even if the recent improvement is real, the country remains far from anything resembling a healthy labor market for less-skilled men. Zoom out and it’s clear that the long-term trend is stark. In 1960, only about 4 percent of native-born men ages 25 to 54 were not in the labor force. By 2026, that figure was 11.1 percent. The increase is even more dramatic for men without a bachelor’s degree, whose nonparticipation rate rose from 4.2 percent in 1960 to 14.6 percent in 2026.

This recent improvement does not change the basic story. America still has a large class of prime-age, native-born men who are neither working nor looking for work. The problem is not merely that a few marginal workers had a bad month in the jobs report, but that millions of men in the very years when they should be most attached to work have instead drifted outside the normal rhythms of economic life.