The announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran was a welcome development, although many of its details, as well as the actual facts on the ground in the theatre of operations, remain very much unclear and indeed disputed. So far, this has been a remote fight, with little frontline reporting of any credibility, wrapped in fake AI imagery, and with coverage now deprived even of much of the commercial satellite imagery that had become so pervasive and important during the last few years, certainly since 2022.
The fog of war has been thicker in this conflict, more than in almost any other recent one. Therefore, any discussion on “lessons” to be drawn from it – so far – must necessarily be taken merely as tentative propositions based on preliminary, general analysis, and can only be put forward with restrained confidence. Nonetheless, this is an important exercise to undertake as early as possible, given how quickly military affairs are evolving.
Even from the observable evidence, the Iran campaign has been exceptionally significant from a military and strategic standpoint and may well be seen by future historians as a watershed in the long history of war itself. Three key, distinct potential lessons arguably stand out at this point – again, not as much as definitely proven conclusions, but more as hypotheses that may invite further reflection, and that are presented here in a deliberately provocative manner for that same reason:
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