ver the coming weeks, more than 20 million voters in southern Germany will head to the polls to elect state parliaments or local governments. The most important contests are the state elections in Baden-Württemberg on March 8 and in Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22. Polls suggest that the AfD could stabilise around 20% even in these southwestern states, while the party is also expected to achieve double-digit results in Bavaria’s local elections.
Yet the decisive dynamic of these elections lies not simply in the rise of the AfD. Instead, they reveal the familiar effect of the cordon sanitaire: the stronger the AfD becomes, the more the parties of the political Left tend to benefit.
What we are witnessing is the transformation of the German party system into a two-bloc structure, now evident even in the country’s economic heartland.
The reason lies less in the strength of the Social Democrats or the Greens than in the strategic position of the Christian Democrats. With its rigid firewall against the AfD, the CDU excludes any cooperation with the party. The result is a recurring pattern: centre-right majorities may exist on paper yet remain powerless. Unless the CDU/CSU acts, their decline may even accelerate.
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