Will Donald Trump get his revenge in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District tonight? The president kept his pressure up to the very end, as WLWT reported this morning. Trump published a final campaign video to get voters to the polls in his attempt to push Thomas Massie out of Congress, and right now, that race looks like a dead heat:
As usual with congressional primaries, the polling has been rather thin. However, the polling that does exist shows challenger Ed Gallrein picking up a lot of momentum over the last few weeks, thanks to Trump's consistent and insistent endorsement:
Just a month ago, polls conducted throughout early April consistently showed Massie with a small, but meaningful lead in the race. One such poll from Quantus Insights that was conducted during the first week of April showed Massie leading by nine percentage points. Similarly, a poll from the Public Polling Project conducted during the same time frame showed Massie with a five-point lead.
However, both polling organizations now paint a significantly different picture in the race as it wanes into its final days. A second poll that was published by Quantus Insights earlier this week showed Gallrein overtaking Massie with a comfortable eight-point lead. Meanwhile, the Public Polling Project's second poll that was published this week showed Massie with just a one-point lead in the race.
Further highlighting how much Massie's lead appears to have eroded, a third poll that was published by the Neighborhood Research Corporation showed the race to be evenly deadlocked with Election Day just days away.
Massie has decided to take his case to the people ... on the fringe. Massie appeared on Tucker Carlson's podcast, blaming Israel for his political woes:
Massie has warned that the race’s outcome will boil down to voter turnout and has sparked controversy for blaming donor funding from Israel supporters and lobbyists for fueling Gallrein’s campaign. He told the Washington Examiner over the weekend that he believes the race is “the most expensive in history, like anywhere.” According to AdImpact, $32.6 million has been poured into the race, the most expensive House primary on record.
“The real reason that this race is a serious race, and I may lose, is because a foreign lobby has fully funded, to the extent that they’ve never done in any Republican race ever before, my opponent,” Massie said during a recent appearance on The Tucker Carlson Show.
How serious is Trump about pushing Massie out of office? He personally recruited an initially reluctant Gallrein to jump into the race. Yesterday, Trump sent War Secretary Pete Hegseth to the district to endorse and campaign for Gallrein, an unusual move that raised eyebrows on Capitol Hill:
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stopped in Northern Kentucky the day before the primary election to support Gallrein, Trump's handpicked candidate who is locked in a fierce race with incumbent U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie — an outspoken critic of the president during his second term. ...
During the event, which was hosted by America First Works, Hegseth railed against Massie's voting history and opposition of the president. In a speech that was just under 15 minutes, he praised Gallrein's military career, while calling Massie a roadblock to the president's agenda. The secretary repeatedly called Gallrein the "reinforcement" and "war fighter" that the president needs in Congress, harkening back to Gallrein's career as a Navy SEAL.
"When President Trump needs backup, Massie wants to debate the process," Hegseth said. "When the movement needs unity, especially at the biggest moments, Massie is willing to vote with Democrats. When conservatives are fighting the most radical left in American history, too often Massie's instinct is to throw elbows at fellow Republicans instead of the people who are destroying our country."
If nothing else, Trump has really put himself on the line in KY-04. If it doesn't pay off, the Protection Racket Media will have a field day ... as will Massie, Carlson, and the Democrats. At least until the general election, anyway.
Massie isn't Trump's only interest in Kentucky. He also endorsed Andy Barr over former state AG Daniel Cameron in the primary to replace Mitch McConnell, who's retiring at the end of this session. This contest has a lot less animosity, but it's worth recalling that Cameron had been seen as an up-and-comer for the GOP in Kentucky. Cameron lost that status after a lackluster 2023 gubernatorial campaign against Andy Beshear. Rand Paul has endorsed Cameron, though, so it may play out similarly to the race in KY-04.
Our election-night partners Decision Desk HQ will join us again tonight to provide real-time results in these contests, and others in Georgia and Alabama as well. Both of those states have important gubernatorial primaries taking place, so keep an eye on those results. Oregon also has a gubernatorial primary, but the main suspense will be who gets to fight a quixotic quest in the deep, progressive West Coast sanctuary for Democrats and illegal aliens.
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