Russia’s Ukraine ‘Victory’: NATO Expansion, 1.2 Million Casualties, a Battered Economy

Four years after Russian forces crossed into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, there is still no comprehensive peace agreement in place, and the war appears unlikely to end anytime soon.

Russia has adapted its economy and military to sustain the conflict for years if necessary, even as economic pressures mount and battlefield deaths mount. Yet the anniversary of the conflict raises an important question: even if Russia eventually secures some or all of the territorial objectives it initially demanded when the “special military operation” began, has it already paid such a steep price that the outcome may amount to a long-term strategic loss?

Russia currently controls around one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory, and its forces continue to fight a grinding war of attrition. But the cumulative military, economic, and even geopolitical costs, coming at a time when NATO is allocating more resources to its defensive and warfighting capabilities, suggest that territorial gains alone may not determine whether Moscow actually achieves victory.