Is The Singularity Here?

In 2005, Ray Kurzweil wrote The Singularity is Near, which I reviewed in the Wall Street Journal here. In 2024, Kurzweil followed up with The Singularity is Nearer. (The two books are available as a set.)

In 2005 I wrote:

The Singularity is a term coined by futurists to describe that point in time when technological progress has so transformed society that predictions made in the present day, already a hit-and-miss affair, are likely to be very, very wide of the mark. Much of Mr. Kurzweil’s book consists of a closely argued analysis suggesting that the Singularity is, well, near: poised to appear in a mere three or four decades.

People’s thoughts of the future tend to follow a linear extrapolation -- steadily more of the same, only better -- while most technological progress is exponential, happening by giant leaps and thus moving farther and faster than the mind can easily grasp. Mr. Kurzweil himself, thinking exponentially, imagines a plausible future, not so far away, with extended life-spans (living to 300 will not be unusual), vastly more powerful computers (imagine more computing power in a head-sized device than exists in all the human brains alive today), other miraculous machines (nanotechnology assemblers that can make most anything out of sunlight and dirt) and, thanks to these technologies, enormous increases in wealth (the average person will be capable of feats, like traveling in space, only available to nation-states today).

Well, some of those things are closer to happening. than others The nanotechnology promises of the early aughts are, alas, not coming true nearly as quickly as hoped. Space travel is now proceeding by leaps and bounds. Computers are not yet made of “computronium,” but AI has advanced farther than anyone, except possibly Kurzweil, expected. And arguably we have already found ourselves “battling genetically enhanced super pathogens,” prepared in Chinese biolabs with, ironically enough, U.S. government funding. Extended lifespans, meanwhile, aren’t in evidence, though Kurzweil thinks we’re actually approaching “actuarial escape velocity,” where average lifespans increase more than one year per elapsed year. I hope so, though that’s an actuarial average that doesn’t promise me anything in particular, alas.

So where are we otherwise?