The Ayatollahs’ Grip Is Weakening. Who Can Replace Them Is Less Clear

In the wake of the Israel–Iran war in June, all the signs point to a regime in Tehran that is nearing collapse. Iran is facing unprecedented electricity and water shortages, which are exacerbating domestic unrest.

The regime cannot meet the economic needs of its people. Even traditional supporters of the Islamic Republic of Iran, such as the merchant classes, have fallen out with the regime. The government is increasingly hesitant in compelling women to wear the hijab, because it fears a major revolt.

Yet the opposition groupings inside Iran are more focused on fighting each other than bringing down the regime. While the iron grip of the ayatollahs has been weakened, who takes their place is less clear. Take, for example, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), a coalition of dissident Iranian groups led by the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK). It presents itself as the only opposition force that can bring down the Islamic Republic of Iran. And it says it has a clearly articulated programme for transition.

Yet leading figures in the NCRI are scathing about Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the last shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who died in exile in 1980. Regime opponents outside the country widely portray Reza Pahlavi as the saviour who will overthrow the clerics. But Ramesh Sepehrrad, a US-based scholar on Iran who is affiliated with the NCRI, says the mullahs and Reza Pahlavi are ‘two sides of the same coin.’ In her view, Reza Pahlavi is doing the bidding of the regime, lacks credibility and has no plan that the Iranian people can latch onto. The Iranians haven’t forgotten the oppression implemented by Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s regime. According to Sepehrrad, the West would be making a mistake by supporting figures who lack legitimacy.