The White House has made renewing trade ties between the United States and Russia a centerpiece of its latest Russia-Ukraine ceasefire proposal. But without robust security assurances for Ukraine, a peace deal that relies primarily on economic concessions to deter further Russian aggression will fail.
The proposal for a trade restart involves a surge of U.S. capital and expertise to Russia (with a particular emphasis on rare earth and hydrocarbon extraction) and increased flows of Russian energy into Europe. Ukraine, for its part, would cede its crucial fortress belt in Donbas. And American firms would be allowed to utilize $200 billion in frozen Russian assets to stand up infrastructure projects in Ukraine, including data centers that would be powered by the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
The business-forward theory currently animating this offer, wherein economic ties among Russia, Ukraine, and the West would undergird peace and bring the Kremlin back in line with international norms, recalls the Clinton administration’s mistaken belief that trade with China would liberalize Beijing’s regime and diminish the security concerns it posed.
Any agreement that brings Russia’s economy in from the cold without requisite guarantees for Ukraine’s future security therefore rests on a foundation of sand, undermining U.S. long term interests and leaves Ukraine in a gray zone wherein it is not actively fighting but always faces the threat of resumed hostilities.
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