As Republicans cling to a majority of just 220-213 seats with two vacancies, rumors are swirling that the GOP could lose the gavel even before a single vote is cast in next year’s midterms as a result of early retirements. While members of Congress are free to resign and explore whatever other opportunities they wish, there should be consequences for failing to honor the compact they made with voters.
Late last month, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene shocked the political world when she announced that she would resign from Congress effective January 5, 2026. In a video statement on social media, Ms. Greene explained that she has become disillusioned with Republican Party leadership and with President Donald Trump, whom she once championed.
With Greene’s retirement, the math becomes precarious for House Speaker Mike Johnson. After January 5, Republicans will have a 219-213 majority. A special election in January to fill the late Rep. Sylvester Turner’s (D-TX) seat makes it 219-214. On April 16, voters in New Jersey will choose the replacement for Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill, who represented a D+9 district. That’s another likely win for Democrats, making the count 219-215.
This scenario would leave Republicans with just a one-seat majority (if a vote is tied, the bill fails) – meaning that any unexpected deaths or illnesses could suddenly put Democrats back in charge of the chamber.
But the even bigger nightmare scenario is if more Republicans decide to go the way of Ms. Greene and retire early. According to Punchbowl News founder Jake Sherman, following the news of Ms. Greene’s retirement, “A few other GOP members messaged us over the weekend saying that they, too, are considering retiring in the middle of the term.” Those members allegedly told Sherman that the House GOP caucus is a “tinder box” and “more explosive early resignations are coming.”
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