Middle East Between Chaos and Transformation: Why the Future Remains Uncertain

There is a famous—if apocryphal—quote attributed to Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens and then there are weeks where decades happen.” We find ourselves in such a period today, particularly when examining the trajectory of the Middle East. The challenge in these transformative moments is distinguishing signal from noise, a task that becomes exponentially more difficult when every development carries the weight of potential historical significance.

Consider the period between 1918 and 1938. Those twenty years witnessed countless movements across Europe that pointed in wildly different directions from what ultimately transpired. There were rapprochements between Germany and France, negotiations between Britain and Germany and throughout the 1920s, especially, no clear indication of which course European and world history would ultimately take. In hindsight the course of history appears to have been predetermined, but this was not so. The Locarno Agreement of 1925 that was intended to guarantee Germany’s Western borders was at the time as significant as the Abraham Accords are today. Unfortunately, the former did not stand the test of time – and it is too soon to tell whether the latter will. To put it differently, we face a similar predicament in the Middle East today as Europe faced in the interwar years. 

To be sure, there are encouraging signs. The Abraham Accords represent a genuine breakthrough in regional diplomacy. The fragile peace in Gaza, however tenuous, offers a glimmer of hope. Many observers look at these developments and conclude that things are moving in the right direction. But, as I pointed out, one could have made identical observations about Europe in the 1920s. At some point, despite all the promising indicators, everything went horribly wrong. This is the uncomfortable truth we must confront: There is no guarantee that the changes we are witnessing will continue moving in a beneficial direction. Indeed, several troubling signs suggest that the foundation beneath the current order may be far more precarious than conventional wisdom acknowledges.