Ending Maduro

How could the United States get rid of Nicolás Maduro? Putting aside whether the U.S. should aim for his removal, there are several typical answers: to confront his regime militarily; to conduct clandestine operations to undermine its military or intelligence; to weaken allies like Russia, China, and Cuba; to interrupt money flows; and so on. Most people imagine a rapid U.S. military intervention in Venezuela that installs democratic leaders in power.

But if Maduro is a drug lord, history already offers lessons on how such figures are controlled and replaced. Maduro himself is not indispensable. If he were killed or removed, the most predictable outcome would be another narco-dictator taking his place — just as Maduro succeeded Hugo Chávez, or Miguel Díaz-Canel replaced Fidel Castro in Cuba.

If the U.S. wants to reshape the region completely, it must confront not only Maduro but the system that sustains him: an alliance of socialist and authoritarian governments — Cuba, Mexico, Colombia, and, of course, Venezuela — often labeled the Castro-Chavista or Bolivarian movement. This network engages in human and drug trafficking, money laundering, illegal mining, and even the sale of U.S. intelligence. It maintains deep political ties or direct control over governments, while receiving crucial support from Russia and China.

Over the past decade, Russia has provided billions of dollars in loans and military assistance to Venezuela, acting as one of the regime’s key guarantors. Moscow utilizes Caracas to project its influence in the Western Hemisphere at a relatively low cost. Meanwhile, China has become Latin America’s second-largest trading partner, with two-way trade exceeding $500 billion in 2024, up from $450 billion the previous year. Through state-backed banks like the China Development Bank, Beijing has financed more than 250 projects worth approximately $160 billion across 21 countries, including infrastructure and energy projects in Venezuela. These flows allow Maduro to partially bypass U.S. sanctions and maintain economic lifelines despite international isolation.