France Teeters Over a Political and Fiscal Abyss

America is not the only Western democracy mired in a political crisis brought on by the brinksmanship of feckless politicos. Americans can find company in their misery among the French, who have seen four prime ministers come and go in the past 18 months. President Emmanual Macron may stride the world like a colossus, but at home, he is very much on the back foot, mostly as a result of his own errors. 

This week’s embarrassing scene is the climax of the whole farcical sequence. Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu resigned on Monday morning, 12 hours after naming his cabinet. Later that same day, Macron named him premier once again and tasked him with finding a parliamentary majority. Lecornu had 48 hours to break the stalemate, at the end of which he announced that he needed—another 48 hours. As this author writes on Wednesday night Paris time, France is holding its breath at two-day intervals. It is not too melodramatic to say that the country’s economy—and the survival of its regime, the Fifth Republic—are both on the line. 

The Fifth Republic—a bespoke creation of General de Gaulle amid the parliamentary crisis of the Fourth Republic and the Algerian War—was not designed to accommodate grand coalitions like those seen in Italy or Germany. Except for two interludes in the ’80s and ’90s, the presidential party has held a majority or plurality of seats. The goal is not debate among several parliamentary blocs, but the celerity of the executive’s action. Since July 2024 legislative elections, France has cycled through three prime ministers—Michel Barnier, Francois Bayrou, and now Lecornu. Each has tripped on the same insurmountable obstacle: cobbling together a coalition to adopt an annual budget and confront the deficit. 

The deficit, standing at nearly five percent, far surpasses France’s obligations under European Union treaties to keep that number under 3 percent. Add to that the mammoth debt of the country, weighing in at 115 percent of GDP. The bond markets have noticed. France is now frequently forced to borrow at higher rates than the erstwhile delinquents of Europe, notably Italy. Credit agencies have repeatedly downgraded its score, sending the cost of debt service soaring.