ritish politics has experienced a turbulent few weeks: an anti-migration mass protest mobilised an unexpected crowd of 150,000 people in London; two symbolic Conservative politicians defected to Reform UK; and Scottish First Minister John Swinney announced that he would seek a new independence referendum for Scotland. In addition, the two traditionally governing parties, Labour and the Conservatives, are now polling at 20% and 16%, respectively, while Reform UK has 31% support across the country.
These are all signs of a major transformation in the British political landscape—which may never return to the way we once knew it.
As much as it is unexpected, overtaking the two legacy parties is not unprecedented in British history. Something similar happened a century ago. Between the establishment of the constitutional monarchy in the 1600s and the First World War, politics was mostly defined by the alternation of Whig (Liberal) and Tory (Conservative) governments. Then, over a short period of time, the Liberals lost ground, and the Labour Party, a new political force not part of the political elites and establishment, took its place. Ever since, for over a century, Labour and Conservative governments have alternated. We are now, however, likely witnessing a historical transformation of the UK political system, with Reform UK potentially replacing the Conservatives.
Unemployment, the shadow of war, inflation—major problems that spark social discontent today in the UK, exactly as they did 100 years ago. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK appeals to the middle class and fuels the narrative of representing people who feel unheard. He labels his movement anti-establishment, challenging the elites of Westminster and Brussels. Similarly, at the time of their initial rise, Labour gained substantial support from middle-class workers who, enfranchised during WWI, were then eager to back the anti-elite new actor in politics.
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