The latest round of Russian provocations, inaugurated by the large drone incursion into Poland on September 10, has sent the Europeans into a tizzy. More drone incidents have followed in the Baltics, Scandinavia, Romania and now as far away as Denmark. A Russian jet cruised just inside the edge of Estonian airspace to widespread NATO panic; GPS is being jammed; elections are being targeted by cyberattacks, as in Moldova; undersea cables are being mapped and cut; Russian spies and saboteurs are being discovered. There seems to be no end to Russian mischief across the continent – only a worsening of it.
The Polish incident so disturbed the allies that they invoked NATO Article 4 consultations, for only the ninth time in the Alliance’s entire history. It resulted in a new NATO “military activity”, codenamed Operation Eastern Sentry, to strengthen allied air security and response. But every time the Alliance puts some new measures in place, the Russians up the ante and find new ways to probe and harass our defences.
The impact on European opinion is palpable, and this is in fact the point of hybrid warfare. Outrage is mixed with fear at what the enemy might do next, with confusion over to how to respond without triggering an all-out war, and with a sinking feeling that Europe is too weak and has no good options.
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