Is All Politics Really Local in California’s Redistricting Test?

California is about to test whether two timeworn political maxims still ring true in 2025.

The first is the tried-and-true “All politics is local,” a phrase dating as far back as 1932 and most closely associated to former House Speaker Tip O’Neill. The second, known as “Fenno’s paradox,” goes something like this: People generally disapprove of Congress as a whole but often support – even have great affinity for – their own member of Congress.

If all politics really is local even in the big state of California, and most voters want to keep the congressmen or women they already have, then the GOP could prevail in its effort to defeat Proposition 50, California Gov. Newsom’s mid-decade gerrymandering drive aimed at eliminating four to six GOP congressional seats.

Newsom and other Democratic proponents readily admit the push for redistricting is an effort to “fight fire with fire” and counter President Trump, after Texas state legislators adopted a congressional district map created to make it easier for Republicans to win five more seats in the U.S. House. The Texas mid-decade redistricting is an unabashed effort to insulate the House Republicans from losing majority control and prevent Trump from being impeached in 2027.