Virginia’s Early Vote Favors Winsome Earle-Sears

The Virginia gubernatorial race between Republican Winsome Earle-Sears and Democrat Abigail Spanberger has already been won by the latter if one takes the polls seriously. Yet actual ballots cast during the first week of early voting suggest that the electorate is ignoring the polls. Early voting for the 2025 general election began on September 19 and, according to the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), turnout is twice what it was in 2021 and it has been particularly high in heavily Republican areas of the Commonwealth. This is remarkably similar to the early voting pattern that prevailed in the 2024 presidential election in the swing states and took most political “experts” by surprise.

To be more specific about the numbers, Virginia voters cast 147,244 ballots during the first week of early voting in the current cycle compared to 69,242 early votes cast during the same period in 2021. How do we know that turnout is up in Republican strongholds? In addition to tracking early votes in the aggregate, VPAP also provides totals by congressional district. There are eleven U.S. House districts in Virginia — five held by Republicans and six held by Democrats. According to the VPAP data, 83,548 early votes were cast in GOP districts, while 63,696 were cast in Democrat districts. In other words, 57 percent of the early votes were cast in Republican districts, while only 43 percent of early votes were cast in Democrat districts.

It is, of course, far too early to say these lopsided percentages portend an Earle-Sears victory, but it does make it clear that Virginia Republicans have learned the most important electoral lesson of the 2024 presidential cycle. Last year the GOP finally realized that getting voters out early — particularly in person — was the key to winning the crucial swing states. Virginia Republicans are definitely following the same strategy in 2025 according to Mark Peake, Chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia. He told the Virginia Mercury, “It’s definitely a Republican strategy … We can’t wait until Election Day and give the Democrats 45 days of early voting.” The early voting results, at least in the first week, seem to confirm the wisdom of pursuing this strategy.