Trade War Fever Has Finally Broken

The great tariff panic of 2025 is officially over.

Back in April, professional investors were convinced tariffs would bring down the global economy. Eight in ten money managers told Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey that “trade war triggers global recession” was their single biggest market risk. That was the highest concentration of fear in the survey’s 15-year history. By September, that fear has all but vanished—just 12 percent still named trade war as their top worry. Inflation and monetary policy took its place.

This extraordinary reversal in investor psychology is one of the fastest shifts in sentiment on record. It reflects not only calmer headlines but also a recognition that Donald Trump’s trade strategy—executed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer—has reorganized global commerce without triggering the destructive retaliatory tit-for-tat trade war Wall Street once dreaded.