Whenever Germans head to the polls, one question dominates all debate: How strong will the populist AfD become this time? Last Sunday’s district and mayoral elections in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW)—Germany’s most populous state—provided a stark answer.
While Germany’s state broadcaster spoke of a “sigh of relief” when the ruling CDU emerged victorious with 33.3% of votes, keeping the AfD in third place at 14.5%, this narrative of triumph masks a far more troubling reality for Germany’s political elite.
Minister President Henrik Wüst, despite his CDU’s electoral win, admitted he could no longer “sleep peacefully” given the AfD’s result. His anxiety is well-founded. Though his party technically won, the CDU achieved its worst post-war result in the state. Meanwhile, the traditionally dominant SPD collapsed to a mere 22.1%—also its worst performance ever, following an already disastrous showing five years prior.
The AfD, by contrast, nearly tripled its 2020 result under circumstances that would have crippled any other party.
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