“Are we overestimating autocracies?” This is the question Matthew Kroening raises in his recent article published in Foreign Policy. To address this question, he uses Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the U.S. attack on Iran as examples. Leading military analysts predicted that Russia would easily roll over Ukraine in 2022, and that any strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would provoke devastating retaliation and war. None of these predictions came to pass. Now, these analysts warn that Beijing’s rapid military buildup will make it extremely difficult for the U.S. and its allies to defeat China in the event of an attack on Taiwan.
Will their prediction prove accurate this time? The article argues that a blind spot often overlooked by these analysts is the systematic weaknesses of autocracies. Dictators are often surrounded by “yes men,” face political and ideological meddling and corruption, and struggle to build deep trust. Compared to external threats, they are often more concerned about domestic instability. In contrast, Western analysts tend to imagine autocratic advantages in terms of ruthlessness, long-term planning, and bold action.
While Kroening argues that autocracies should not be overestimated, a report published by Stimson suggests that “China is unlikely to invade Taiwan” because “an armed invasion to accomplish that goal is not a desirable or responsible option.” The report points to the risk of nuclear escalation, potential casualties, severe political consequences, economic losses, and international sanctions. Based on a simple risk-versus-reward analysis, the report concludes that an invasion of Taiwan would be “a highly risky endeavor with a low probability of success.”
The report further argues that American politicians, defense leaders, and military industry-affiliated commentators often use Taiwan to justify defense policy decisions and budget increases, but rarely question the strategic feasibility or consider the political, economic, and practical military factors. These factors are suggested as the main obstacles that would significantly reduce the likelihood of a CCP attack on Taiwan.
Regardless of whether it is Kroening or the Stimson report, both argue that the systematic weaknesses of China should be carefully assessed. They agree that these weaknesses may be critical in determining China’s real geopolitical capabilities, particularly in military actions. However, an important distinction must be noted: Kroening does not suggest that China attacking Taiwan is unlikely. His focus is on how to properly evaluate reality and plan effective responses.
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