Africa’s Renewable Leapfrog Is a Mirage—A Dangerous One

A report titled “African Energy Leadership: The Case for 100% Renewable Energy” was published last week, claiming that “Africa could save between $3 trillion and $5 trillion by transitioning to a fully renewable energy system by 2050.” This shift, it asserted, would also create up to 5.4 million new energy sector jobs, significantly more than the 3.2 million jobs projected “under current fossil fuel trajectories.” This report by the environmental NGO (ENGO) Power Shift Africa in collaboration with the University of Technology Sydney’s Institute for Sustainable Futures (UTS-ISF) was launched at the Bonn Climate Conference (SB62).

In recent years, the concept of “leapfrogging” over fossil‑fuel development to craft a 100 % renewable energy system in Africa has gained traction: bypass oil, gas and coal, build “clean” solar and wind farms instead, and align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C global warming target. Proponents point to “dramatic cost reductions” in solar and wind, enormous “theoretical potential” and massive economic benefits with “millions of new green jobs”.

And yet for all these glossy numbers, the physics, economics, and on‑the‑ground realities tell a far more sobering story. The leapfrog narrative is less a roadmap to prosperity than a vapid fig‑leaf for Western moral satisfaction, an exercise in a hypocritical carbon colonialism.

Leapfrogging is an Empty Notion

The concept of Africa leapfrogging to a 100% renewable energy system, bypassing conventional fossil fuels, defies the fundamental constraints of physics and economics. This has been incisively outlined by Mark P. Mills in his paper on “magical thinking” among promoters of renewable energy. Mills argues that renewables like solar and wind, despite cost declines, are inherently limited by their low energy density and intermittency, requiring vast land areas and expensive storage solutions to achieve reliability—challenges magnified in Africa’s context, where industrial-scale energy demand is critical for modern economic growth.