In April 2022, the U.S. and Ukraine were on a routine intelligence-sharing call. The U.S. notified the Ukrainians that Russian capital ships, including the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, a heavy cruiser named the Moskva, the first of its class, were hulking menacingly along the Odessa coastline. The Ukrainians hastily said thank you and bailed out of the call.
The next news, according to the New York Times, left the Biden administration angry and almost in a state of panic. Moskva was sunk by two sea-hugging Neptune missiles. “The Biden administration also didn't want Ukraine to attack ‘a potent symbol of Russian power,’ highlighting the delicate balance Washington has maintained since the war’s outset—arming Kyiv while trying to avert a broader confrontation with Moscow,” per the report. Any chance of negotiation with Russia was gone.
Two years on, the dynamic remains similar. A day before the peace delegations were supposed to meet in Istanbul, the Ukrainians did one of the most daring special-ops in the history of modern warfare. Truck-borne small drone swarms attacked the Russian strategic bomber fleet deep in Russia. The news is fluid, but what we know so far suggests that this operation was apparently planned for over a year. The Ukrainians did not involve the Americans in planning, nor did they inform Americans before the attack. The timing was primed for a day ahead of the talks, thereby destroying the chances of any negotiation by obvious implication.
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