California leads the nation in more ways than one — taxes, regulations, and, once again, gas prices. As of mid-May 2025, the average gasoline price in California is $4.85 per gallon, far above the national average of $3.26, according to GasBuddy and AAA.

And it’s getting worse. A March 2025 study by USC Professor Michael Mische forecasts California’s fuel prices could spike 75 percent to over $8 per gallon within the next year. That’s not hyperbole — that’s the trajectory unless policymakers reverse course.

The culprit? It’s not oil companies or global demand. It’s decades of state-level tax hikes, regulatory overreach, and misguided climate mandates that have warped the gasoline market in California. This is a man-made problem — a case study in government failure, not market failure.

What Really Drives Gas Prices

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), gasoline prices are generally shaped by five components: crude oil prices, refining costs, distribution and marketing, taxes, and regulations. In California, taxes and regulatory costs alone account for more than $1.30 per gallon — nearly double the national average.