The Brussels elites were surely dismayed at how well conservative populist candidates fared in Sunday’s first round of Poland’s presidential election. They would probably be even more surprised to discover a likely cause: abortion.

Poland’s ruling coalition was openly backed by the establishment powers that be in the run-up to the 2023 parliamentary vote. The European Commission had feuded for years with the conservative-populist Law and Justice party, alleging that it was suppressing the rule of law and threatening democracy.

They were relieved when Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition took power. Surely, they believed, democracy was saved, and modernity was coming to backwards little Poland.