A fracturing of the United States-NATO alliance and a Russia-favorable resolution of the war in Ukraine would represent a significant strategic victory for Xi Jinping, the apotheosis of an alliance sealed by Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Beijing Olympics in 2022.

But their 2024 pledge of a “new era” between the two powers is about more than the support that is helping Russia sustain its war in Ukraine; fundamentally, it is about diminishing the American dominance that prevailed after World War II and ushering in a new global writ, authored and underpinned by Chinese power. “The world is going through changes unseen in a hundred years,” Xi told Putin at the BRICS summit. And, he might have added, we are delighted.

Thinking Beyond the Ukraine War: The Impact on Asia and Beyond

Putin’s 2022 march on Ukraine was a signal Xi was quick to exploit: a “once in a century” opportunity, he believed, to hasten the inevitable decline of the West and build a new world order helmed by Beijing. Xi embraced the Russian dictator’s upending of the post-World War II order, helping to sustain Moscow’s onslaught with critical dual-use inputs, such as microelectronics, precision machine tools, spare parts, titanium and magnesium alloys, and chemical inputs for munitions production and components essential for weapons manufacturing. China has also buttressed Russia’s economy in the face of international sanctions, purchasing energy and increasing trade to record levels.

Meanwhile, Beijing’s formidable informational and propaganda arms promote Russian narratives that blame the United States and NATO for the war. For these reasons,  NATO has identified China as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war efforts, without whose support the war could not continue.