While the United States has its hands full with conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, Latin America may become a region of greater focus for the incoming Trump administration. The region, sometimes derided by policymakers as the “United States’ backyard,” was hardly brought up directly by Donald Trump, Joe Biden or Kamala Harris on the campaign trail. But issues that were at the center of the election, such as immigration, tariffs and economic policy, are likely to shape how P resident-elect Trump engages with leaders of the Americas, especially newly elected president Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico.

If Trump’s first cabinet picks are any indication of his policy toward Latin America, figures like Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Florida Rep. Michael Waltz, who have been nominated as secretary of state and national security adviser, respectively, could be a sign of a harsher posture, especially as U.S. competition with China plays out in the region .

A more aggressive posture?

Dr. Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, an expert in international relations at Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in Buenos Aires, Argentina, argues that Trump’s new term may bring a reassertion of the Monroe Doctrine, a 201-year-old policy that served as the basis for some of Washington’s more aggressive interventions in Latin America from the Mexican-American and Spanish-American wars in the 19th century to through the end of the Cold War. Tokatlian told Responsible Statecraft that he sees figures like Rubio using China’s advances in Latin America to revive the policy.

“There are signals, at least, …that this may be a rehearsal of the Monroe Doctrine at least in terms of positioning of the United States. Marco Rubio… has a very strong anti-Cuban, anti-Nicaraguan, anti-Venezuelan, but also anti-Petro and anti-Lula position,” he said in reference to the current presidents of Colombia and Brazil. “This all together in the context of what he sees as a growing challenge of a malign foreign power, … China.”