America is outgrowing the Democratic Party. That’s not a partisan claim; it’s demographic reality.

Blue states are shedding population and will have less representation in Congress and fewer votes in the Electoral College after the next census. Two nonpartisan nonprofits, the Brennan Center for Justice and the American Redistricting Project, crunched the numbers last year and came to conclusions that ought to shock Democrats into changing the way they govern places like California and New York.

States that voted for Kamala Harris this year are set to lose 12 seats in the House of Representatives, and an equal number of presidential electors, after 2030, according to the two groups’ extrapolations from Census Bureau data. California is on track to lose four congressmen and electoral votes. New York will lose three, Illinois two, while Oregon, Minnesota and Rhode Island are each going to be down one.

Solidly Republican states will get most of the gains, with Texas picking up four congressional seats and electoral votes, Florida acquiring three, and Idaho, Utah and Tennessee each adding one.