Well, it happened.

It was almost inevitably going to happen at some point, given how close the forecast has been to 50/50 since Kamala Harris took over for Joe Biden. But for the fourth time this cycle, the streams have crossed, and the nominal favorite in the race has changed. Thanks in part to one of the first high-quality national polls in weeks to show him ahead — yes, it’s from Fox News, but Fox News polling has no history of GOP bias — Donald Trump now has a 50.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.

That’s not much different from Trump’s 49.4 percent chances yesterday: the difference is that he wins the Electoral College an additional 1 time out of 125. But Trump is past the 50-yard line — and above Harris’s chances, which are 49.5 percent1 — for the first time since Sept. 19.