Recall that in 2020, Trump lost Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia by about 43,000 votes. Had those gone the other way, it would have resulted in an Electoral College tie. This year, the RealClearPolitics average has seven states currently within two points or less.

It is of course possible that an RFK Jr. endorsement would have downsides. The Harris campaign would immediately attempt to tie all the odd statements RFK Jr. has made over the years to Trump and use it as part of their anti-“weird” campaign.

Either way, however, the RFK Jr. factor is a major wildcard in the race that nobody should sleep on.