When It's Close, It's a Tie

With regard to survey research in general, we are big believers that the margin of error always applies. The margin of error on local, state and national polls is 3%-4% or more.

There is no such thing as a 1-point or 2-point or 3-point lead. Each "lead” is a statistical tie. So: If Jack “leads” Jill 45%-to-43%, Jack does not “lead” Jill by 2 percentage points. Jack and Jill are statistically tied. 

…..Outlier presented as fact. The lesson here is that even “high-quality” surveys can be outliers. It’s the nature of the survey research beast.