Iran’s Risky Gamble

The American–Israeli war with Iran that began on 28 February has significantly expanded in two—possibly three—directions, with likely revolutionary implications for the geopolitics of the Middle East in the coming decades.

The most immediate possibility is the likely demise of Hezbollah, Lebanon’s Islamist terrorist organisation, which is Iran’s main proxy in the region. Though strapped for cash, this past year Iran has sent Hezbollah some one billion US dollars, in funds or in kind. After a two-day hesitation and under pressure from an embattled Iran to join the fighting, on Day Three of the war Hezbollah launched a salvo of short-range rockets toward Israel’s northern border settlements. The organisation said this was in response to the Israeli assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s “Supreme Leader” and the most important religious and political figure in the Shi’ite universe.

The Lebanese Islamists may have been simply trying to make a symbolic statement, but the IDF—eager to complete the job it began in summer 2024 and demolish Hezbollah—responded with an escalating array of operations, including bombardments of targets in southern and eastern Lebanon and in the Dahiya quarter of southern Beirut, the Lebanese capital’s Shi’ite neighbourhood and Hezbollah’s main stronghold.

Most significantly, the IDF ordered the inhabitants of southern Lebanon, most of whom are Shi’ites, to completely evacuate the villages south of the Litani River and the Dahiya district. Since Thursday, Beirut’s boulevards and Lebanon’s roads have been clogged with endless streams of cars heading north and east, loaded with mattresses and other household appurtenances. More than half a million Lebanese are reportedly on the move and seeking makeshift shelter. On Friday, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) began toppling multistorey apartment blocks in the Dahiya district. Meanwhile, the IDF began moving armour and infantry into the border-hugging areas of southern Lebanon to prevent possible Hezbollah raids on Israel’s border settlements and possibly also as the start of a slow crawl northwards towards the Litani River line.