Spin the Dials: How Battleground States Could Flip in 2024

Our Swing-States Dial shows how such shifts in the seven battleground states can alter the outcome of the presidential election. Even small movements in voter turnout or party preference among a single subgroup can tip not just one swing state, but multiple states—and therefore the Electoral College. ...

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White, working-class voters are hugely important to Trump, providing 57% of all the votes he received nationally in 2020. This group remains a majority of the voter pool in the swing states of the industrial north: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. In Pennsylvania, they cast 53% of the ballots in 2020, according to AP VoteCast, a large survey of the electorate that year. 

That is such a big share that only a 1-point increase in Republican support among this group would flip the state from President Biden to Trump—even as its ranks give way to a younger cohort that is more diverse and educated.

Ed Morrissey

This seems like a fun way to speculate on demographic impact, but I'm not sold on it as necessarily entirely on point. The 2020 election had an enormously unique turnout model, accelerated in large part by voting "innovations" during the pandemic that will not be repeated in battleground states this time around. I'd expect a much lower turnout this time, perhaps even a bit lower than the historical norms, because of the dissatisfaction with the 2020 rematch. That would be far more influential than a demo tweak here and there, I'd guess. 

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