Our Swing-States Dial shows how such shifts in the seven battleground states can alter the outcome of the presidential election. Even small movements in voter turnout or party preference among a single subgroup can tip not just one swing state, but multiple states—and therefore the Electoral College. ...
White, working-class voters are hugely important to Trump, providing 57% of all the votes he received nationally in 2020. This group remains a majority of the voter pool in the swing states of the industrial north: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. In Pennsylvania, they cast 53% of the ballots in 2020, according to AP VoteCast, a large survey of the electorate that year.
That is such a big share that only a 1-point increase in Republican support among this group would flip the state from President Biden to Trump—even as its ranks give way to a younger cohort that is more diverse and educated.
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