As with seismic events in Iran, and this is undoubtedly one, there is the possibility that its effects could tear at the fabric of a country that has seen rampant inflation, rising unemployment and popular protests.
But anyone hoping for a revolution will probably be disappointed. The regime hasn’t wavered in its dealings with dissent, and is unlikely to now. Ayatollah Khamenei’s abiding lesson from the 1979 revolution was simple: never give in to the demands of protestors. So long as the IRGC and its internal organs remain loyal to the supreme leader and the regime, it is hard to see protests having a significant impact on the stability of the regime, no matter how far they spread.
The death of Raisi both matters and doesn’t. The regime will grimly march on, no matter who replaces Khamenei.
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