A recent Emerson College survey reveals that in a potential matchup, Gallego leads with 44% to Lake's 40% among Arizona voters. A further 16% were undecided.
When that bloc was asked to choose, however, the race narrowed to 51% for Gallego and 49% for Lake.
Basically, it's a dead heat, as one might expect in a purple state like Arizona. (It's a dead dry heat, of course.)
This means that turnout will be key to the race, and right now, the enthusiasm edge is going to the GOP. Even with Trump at the top of the ticket (or because, if you prefer), Biden's deeply unpopular and uninspiring. That will impact Democrats all the way down the ballot.
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