Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent. …

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment (table 2). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

[This looks like a pretty solid result, supported in the details. All of the numbers here are annualized and adjusted for inflation (‘real’): Government spending rose 3.3%, so it’s not a case of numbers getting goosed by the Biden administration. Consumer spending dropped a little to a 2.8% growth level, down from 3.1% in Q4 but still a decent level of movement, although perhaps a little disappointing given the holiday season. Final sales of domestic product grew a nearly identical 3.2%, which means this isn’t an inventory-stocking phenomenon. The biggest boost to GDP appears to be a big gap between exports (+6.3%) and imports (+1.9), which may not last into the next quarter. That’s the biggest positive gap in a year, in fact. — Ed]