The worldwide spread of the coronavirus for weeks before it was first identified in the dying days of 2019 has continued to fascinate observers, not least because of what it implies for the futility of the extreme interventions based on the false belief that it was not already here.

This time last year I summarised what we then knew from studies and other evidence about this early spread. I argued that the evidence would suggest that the virus emerged around September or October 2019 in or near Wuhan and spread globally during that autumn and winter. However, it was not the dominant virus during that winter season and spread at low level without producing noticeable excess deaths (there was also none of the deadly medical, political, and social response at that time, of course).

Sadly, 2023 did not see much by way of additional evidence emerging on early spread. This is a pity as the World Health Organisation, back in 2020, rightly called on countries to investigate this critical matter in order to fill out our picture on the origin of the virus. It repeated this request in June 2022. However, during 2023 the WHO abandoned its origins investigation as hopeless due to a lack of cooperation from governments, meaning the prospect of getting to the bottom of this question is fading away.