If he were to regain the Oval Office, Trump might be pulled in conflicting directions. One of the most prominent contemporary exponents of a Jacksonian foreign policy, Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, has called for strikes against Houthi helicopters and drones in order to protect shipping lanes in the Red Sea. It is not hard to see Trump returning to those hawkish roots and launching strikes against Houthi rebels and other Iran proxies, particularly when his allies in Washington are advocating for similar responses. That targeted military action could intertwine with elements from Trump’s past record — backing Israel while also assembling a coalition to restrain Iran.

But there is also a chance that a second Trump term could see a more retrenchment-oriented approach — less “don’t poke the eagle” and more the “come home, America” that was George McGovern’s slogan.

[I’m tempted to argue that nothing would be as bad as the present policy, and I suspect Trump would take steps in the correct direction to end the appeasement of Iran. The bigger question would be Russia and China, even in the Middle East. — Ed]