The Venezuelan referendum asked voters to back the regime’s rejection of the International Court of Justice’s jurisdiction over Esequiba and “to agree to a plan to incorporate it and create a state called Guayana Esequiba.”

It also sought “to grant its population Venezuelan citizenship.” In October, Guyana’s government, headed by president Mohamed Irfaan Ali, requested an explanation from the Venezuelan ambassador in Georgetown regarding heightened troop movements in the border regions.

Amid the uncertainty, there are reasons for concern. Maduro’s nationalist incentives, his domestic political fortunes, the Venezuela‐​Guyana military balance, the regional politics, and the alignment of great power interests all come together in a way that could suggest military action.