Who told them to light their money on fire? Haley is the only GOP primary candidate who has gained significant ground in the polls since launching her campaign, but the reality is that Trump still leads her by at least twenty points in New Hampshire and by about thirty in Iowa and Haley’s home state of South Carolina. If 2016 taught us anything, it’s that no one in the Republican field is going to win a protracted battle against Trump. Haley would have to clean-sweep those three early primary states to build enough momentum to have a snowball’s chance in hell at securing the nomination. If the polls are even slightly close to correct, that is not going to happen, no matter how many millions AFP drops into the race over the next month and a half.

An AFP endorsement could even be more of a hindrance than a help in a GOP primary where the party base is still brimming with populist and nationalist sentiment. AFP opposed Trump’s trade war with China, wants to import more cheap laborers through immigration reform and supports a pathway to permanent residency for millions of illegal aliens, slammed union-led UAW strikes that ended with significant wage gains for workers and believes that the criminal justice system needs reform to address “racial disparities.” They represent the GOP from 2008, which helps to explain why they are supporting Haley.

[I don’t get this either, especially after Haley’s declaration that she would ban anonymous commentary online. It’s not a good fit, and it leaves the populist grassroots to DeSantis, or at least that part of it that wants an alternative to Trump. And DeSantis is building his own organizations in Iowa and South Carolina rather than relying on AFP or any other think tank. — Ed]